NYT Succession Odds

Kahn Cools, Ryan Rises After a First Week of Wagering

After a week worth’s of betting, our quants’ neural network has spit out a new set of odds on who will be selected as the next executive editor of The New York Times

The New York Times Succession Betting Pool has been up and running for a week now, and our quants have been keeping an anxious eye as the bets come in on who will succeed Dean Baquet as the paper’s next executive editor. They fed new data sets into their neural network, and it spit out a new set of odds. If you haven’t already, place your own bets now!

NYT Succession Odds Chart - Oct 14, 2021

You’ll notice that there’s been some movement. The biggest surprise to us is that managing editor Joe Kahn (+125 250) didn’t attract anywhere near the wagering action that might be expected for the person considered the consensus favorite. Few subscribers have placed any of their OTR$ bucks on him. Perhaps the executive editor succession race is more open than the conventional wisdom? Or are his odds so short it hasn’t been worth a wager? Kahn is still the leading contender in our newly revised odds, but the algorithm has dialed back his chances to under 50 percent.

The tight bunch of candidates in the next tier has gotten a lot more orderly. Reflecting the relatively heavy bets he’s attracted, the odds were shortened on deputy managing editor Cliff Levy (+1000 ▲250). But not too far behind him in the betting pool is deputy managing editor Carolyn Ryan (+1250 ▲250), who has pulled away from assistant managing editor Marc Lacey (+1500). We can only hope that Ryan is as gracious with Lacey about this development as she was after defeating him in a hard-fought newsroom ping-pong match.

The other mover is deputy managing editor and deputy editor, publisher’s office Rebecca Blumenstein (+2000 ▲500), who attracted quite a bit of OTR$ in the first week of betting. Our quants are a little confused about whether this was due to insider knowledge about her close working relationship with publisher A.G. Sulzberger, who will pick the next executive editor, or statistical noise created by her stans in the betting pool. Either way, the algorithm now puts her even with opinion editor and fellow-A.G. direct report Kathleen Kingsbury (+2000).

While all individual bets are confidential, here’s where the OTR$ bucks wagered so far have gone.

The pool is open to all subscribers — if you haven’t placed your bets, click here! — and here’s a recap of the rules: Every subscriber has been given OTR$ 1,000 to wager as you see fit. You can place your bets any time before The Times announces the next executive editor, and all bets will be placed confidentially. Whoever finishes with the most OTR$ bucks wins three annual subscriptions to gift to your valued colleagues or loved ones, eternal bragging rights, probably some Off the Record swag, and maybe a trophy. Happy betting!